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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."